Langmann, C. “Canadian Firearms Legislation and Effects on Homicide 1974 to
2008.” Journal of Interpersonal Violence, In Press, Accepted Sept 30, 2011.
Canada has implemented legislation covering all firearms since 1977 and
presents a model to examine incremental firearms control. The effect of
legislation on homicide by firearm and the subcategory, spousal homicide is
controversial and has not been well studied to date. Legislative effects on
homicide and spousal homicide were analyzed using data obtained from
Statistics Canada from 1974 to 2008. Three statistical methods were applied
to search for any associated effects of firearms legislation. Interrupted
time series regression, ARIMA, and Joinpoint analysis were performed. No
significant beneficial associations between firearms legislation and
homicide or spousal homicide rates were found after the passage of three
Acts by the Canadian Parliament: Bill C-51 (1977), C-17 (1991), and C-68
(1995). Nor were effects found after the implementation of licensing in
2001, and the registration of rifles and shotguns in 2003. After the passage
of C-68, a decrease in the rate of the decline of homicide by firearm was
found by interrupted regression. Joinpoint analysis also found an increasing
trend in homicide by firearm rate post the enactment of the licensing
portion of C-68. Other factors found to be associated with homicide rates
were median age, unemployment, immigration rates, percent of population in
low income bracket, Gini index of income equality, population per police
officer, and incarceration rate. This study failed to demonstrate a
beneficial association between legislation and firearm homicide rates between 1974 and 2008.
I’ve been waiting months for that to be published.